The latest numbers from the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute show at least 5 point leads for the Republican candidates in both the US Senate and Gubernatorial race. The poll with a margin of error of 2.8 percent shows former Republican Congressman Pat Toomey holding a 50 - 45 percent lead among likely voters over Democratic US Rep. Joe Sestak in the race to be Pennsylvania's next US senator. In the Governor’s race, Republican Tom Corbett, the Attorney General, has a 52 - 42 percent lead over Democrat Dan Onorato. Onorato is the Allegheny County Executive.
Quinnipiac University Polling Institute Assistant Director Peter A. Brown says, "The candidates each hold their party bases pretty well, each getting more than 80 percent of the votes of their own party members." The difference comes among voters who identify themselves as independent. The poll finds Toomey leads Sestak among independents 52 - 39 percent and Corbett leads 53 - 34 percent among independent voters.
Digging a bit further into the numbers shows 6 percent of likely voters in the governor’s race are undecided and 14 percent of voters who name a candidate say they might change their mind. 17 percent of Onorato supporters say they may change their mind while 11 percent of Corbett backers could jump ship. Likely voters give Onorato a 40 - 36 percent favorability rating compared to Corbett's 51 - 25 percent rating. "It is difficult to see how Dan Onorato becomes Pennsylvania's next governor," says Brown.
The numbers are based on 1,244 surveys from October 25 – 30.